India explores alternatives to Japan for Mumbai-Ahmedabad Bullet Train Project amid delays

New Delhi, India (Metro Rail Today): India’s ambitious bullet train project, the Mumbai-Ahmedabad High-Speed Rail (MAHSR) corridor, which was approved in December 2015, has encountered significant delays, prompting the Union government to explore alternatives to Japan as the technology and equipment supplier. With a goal to launch the project by 2026, ahead of the Gujarat assembly elections in 2027, the government is considering shifting its focus to European suppliers.

The Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train project, estimated to cost ₹1.08 lakh crore (approximately $13 billion), is one of India’s most ambitious infrastructure ventures. Approved by the Indian government, this project aims to create a high-speed rail corridor between Mumbai and Ahmedabad, covering a distance of 508 kilometers. Once completed, the bullet train will cut travel time from 7-8 hours to just 2 hours and 7 minutes, with speeds reaching up to 320 kilometers per hour. The train is expected to stop at key stations such as Thane, Virar, Boisar, Vapi, Surat, Bharuch, Vadodara, and Anand along the route.

Despite the vision behind the project, the MAHSR initiative has faced considerable setbacks, primarily concerning the supply of technology and components. The Japanese government, which is providing significant financial backing for the project through a soft loan, has been hesitant to commit to the project’s revised timelines. This has led the Indian government to consider seeking new international partners, specifically from Europe, to help expedite the completion of the project.

The Role of Japan and the Concerns Over Delays

Japan has been a crucial partner in the MAHSR project, providing both financial and technological support. Approximately 81% of the project’s funding comes from a soft loan offered by the Japanese government through the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). The loan, with a tenure of 50 years at an interest rate of just 0.1%, was a key factor in India's decision to collaborate with Japan on this venture.

However, in recent discussions, Indian officials have expressed frustration over Japan's reluctance to adhere to the project’s deadlines. Despite repeated attempts by Indian Railways Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw to push Japan to expedite the process, the Japanese side has remained non-committal. This has raised concerns within India’s Ministry of Railways about the possibility of missing the 2026 deadline, which would impact both the political timeline and the broader national development goals.

To mitigate the risk of further delays, the Indian government issued an internal directive in mid-September 2024 to prepare global tenders for various components of the bullet train project. This move is seen as an effort to diversify suppliers and reduce reliance on Japan. However, the actual floating of tenders has been delayed as the Indian government waits for the new Japanese administration to respond.

Potential Alternatives from Europe

India’s shift towards European suppliers reflects a broader strategy to modernize its railways and reduce dependency on a single international partner. European companies, particularly those from countries like France, Germany, and Spain, have established reputations for providing high-speed rail technology, and several of them are seen as potential candidates to supply the necessary components for the MAHSR project.

The decision to consider European alternatives, however, comes with challenges. One of the major concerns is the potential cost escalation. If Japan’s technology is replaced with European standards, an additional ₹15,000 crore (approximately $1.8 billion) could be added to the overall project cost. This is due to the significant infrastructure that has already been built based on Japanese specifications, including the construction of hundreds of kilometers of pier foundations, pier construction, and girder casting. Any change in specifications would require substantial alterations to the existing infrastructure, leading to increased costs.

Another concern is the diplomatic fallout that could arise from replacing Japan as the primary technology and equipment supplier. The bullet train project is not just an infrastructure initiative but also a symbol of India-Japan bilateral ties. Any significant shift in the project’s framework could be perceived as sidestepping Japan, potentially straining diplomatic relations between the two countries. Japanese cooperation remains vital, not only for the project’s technological aspects but also for its financing. The government of Japan is funding a substantial portion of the project through a long-term loan at concessional rates, which is central to the viability of the project.

Despite these challenges, there is an acknowledgment within the Indian government that securing timely completion of the bullet train project is crucial, both politically and economically. India is keen to launch the project before the 2026 Gujarat elections, which are expected to be a significant event in the lead-up to the national elections in 2024. The success of the Mumbai-Ahmedabad high-speed rail corridor is seen as a key milestone in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision for modernizing India’s infrastructure.

Indigenous Manufacturing and Future High-Speed Corridors

While the government seeks alternatives for the Mumbai-Ahmedabad corridor, India is simultaneously progressing towards indigenous bullet train manufacturing. Indian Railways is working towards developing domestically manufactured bullet trains, with plans to build high-speed trains on the Vande Bharat platform. These trains will be capable of speeds up to 280 kilometers per hour, with an average operational speed of 250 kilometers per hour.

In addition to bullet train manufacturing, the development of advanced signalling systems for high-speed corridors is a priority. Indian Railways is focusing on the development of Kavach 5.0, an automatic train protection technology that will be used across future high-speed corridors. This will ensure the safety and efficiency of the rail network as it expands.

The Maharashtra segment of the bullet train project has seen significant progress in recent months, particularly after the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government took charge. Over 320 kilometers of the physical infrastructure has been completed, and land acquisition for the project has been fully finalized. This progress is being seen as a positive indicator for the future of high-speed rail in India.

In the long term, India aims to establish a comprehensive high-speed rail network that will connect major cities across the country. The insights gained from the Mumbai-Ahmedabad project will serve as a foundation for future corridors, with the goal of eventually creating a self-sufficient domestic bullet train manufacturing ecosystem. Indian officials have expressed confidence that the country will be able to take on future high-speed rail projects independently, without the need for foreign partnerships.

Challenges and Road Ahead

As India moves forward with the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train project and explores alternatives to Japanese suppliers, several challenges remain. The potential cost escalation, the risk of diplomatic tension with Japan, and the need for timely completion are key issues that the government will need to address in the coming months.

However, the progress made in indigenous manufacturing and the continued development of high-speed rail infrastructure signals that India is on a path to becoming a leader in bullet train technology. The MAHSR project remains a critical part of this vision, and despite the setbacks, the Indian government is determined to ensure its timely completion.

The decision to diversify suppliers and technology providers is a strategic move that could benefit India in the long term, both in terms of cost-effectiveness and technological advancement. As the global rail industry evolves, India is positioning itself to be at the forefront of high-speed rail development, leveraging both domestic expertise and international partnerships to create a world-class rail network.

The Mumbai-Ahmedabad High-Speed Rail project represents a transformative leap for India's infrastructure development. With the government keen on launching the project by 2026, the exploration of alternatives to Japanese suppliers reflects India’s determination to overcome obstacles and ensure timely completion. The lessons learned from this project will lay the foundation for future high-speed rail corridors across the country, positioning India as a key player in the global high-speed rail industry.